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2011 Elections | April 30, 2011 [ 19:13 ]

Datum poll: Ollanta Humala 41.5 pct; Keiko Fujimori 40.3 pct

By Jorge Riveros-Cayo
LivinginPeru.com

The third poll published after the April 10 election, made by Datum and published Friday, shortens distances between nationalist presidential candidate Ollanta Humala (41.5 percent) and right-wing Keiko Fujimori (40.3 percent).

Again, 10.4 percent of polled people are still undecided of whom to vote for and 7.8 percent voted blank or invalidated their vote.

According to Datum’s poll, 49.4 percent of people in Lima will vote for Keiko, while 33.3 percent will do so for Humala. But again, as in the two previous polls, Humala is still strong in Peru’s south (58 percent) and central regions (53.5 percent), while Keiko strongholds are situated in the Amazonian regions (44 percent) and northern Peru (40.9 percent).

Humala’s main support comes also from the rural regions in the country (49.8 percent), while Keiko’s support comes mainly from the urban regions (42.7 percent).
Keiko has a strong support in the upper (50.6 percent) and middle (45.2 percent) socio-economic classes, meanwhile Humala’s support comes from the lowest (50.3 percent) and lower (43.3 percent) classes.

When people are asked who did they vote for in April 10 and who will they vote for in June 5, the results are with Humala: 92.8 percent will vote for him again; 4.9 that voted for Keiko will vote for him; 10.5 percent that voted for PPK will vote for him; 40.2 percent that voted for Toledo will vote for him, and 19 percent that voted for Castañeda will vote for him. The results with Keiko Fujimori: 90.5 percent will vote for her again; 4 percent that voted for Humala will vote for her; 53.6 percent that voted for PPK will vote for her; 27.6 percent that voted for Toledo will vote for her, and 48 percent that voted for Castañeda will vote for her.

What do people think about Humala and Keiko?

Despite almost 80 percent of Peruvian voters have decided their vote, their perception of who will win the election could be different. When people are asked, “Objectively speaking and regardless of whom you vote for, who do you think will win the runoff and become Peru’s next president?” 52 percent say Ollanta Humala will win, and 33.9 percent say Keiko Fujimori will win.

Datum also asked, “If you were Peru’s president, what country would you have as a role model for Peru’s development?” People responded, United States (19.9 percent), Brazil (16 percent), Chile (14.3 percent), Japan (12.8 percent), and China (3.9 percent), among others.

Again, regardless of whom they will vote for, Peruvians have a difficult time to trust their candidates.

To the question, “Keiko has sweared to God she will not free her father from prison if she is elected president. Do you think Keiko will keep her promise or will she free her father from prison?” 62.1 percent think she will free her father from jail, and 28.5 percent think she will not.

When people are asked, “Ollanta Humala has announced he will change his government manifesto for the runoff from the original he presented in the first round. Do you think he truly wants to make those changes or is it just an electoral strategy to win the elections?” 58.7 percent think it is an electoral strategy, and 32.5 percent think he really wants to make those changes.

About Peru's economy, 75.5 percent of people polled think that a free market economy "just like in the United States" is more convenient for Peru, versus 16.7 percent who think our economy shoudl be state-controlled such as "in Cuba or Venezuela."

When people are asked which of the candidates lie, 51.8 percent think that Humala lies, and 31.3 percent think he is saying the truth; 45.9 percent think Keiko lies, and 36.4 percent think she does not.

Finally, Datum asked a series of questions: Who is more democratic? 43.3 percent said Keiko, 31.9 percent said Humala; Who will respect Congress decisions? 42.1 percent think Keiko will, 39.8 percent think Humala; Who will respect banks savings and retirement plan (AFP) funds? 41.6 percent said Keiko will, and 29.8 percent said Humala will; Who will respect private property? 44.2 percent think Keiko will, and 29.4 percent think Humala; Who will respect the Constitution and the law? 42.1 percent said Keiko will, and 31 percent said Humala will.

The poll was made interviewing 1200 people in 15 regions of Peru, between April 25-27 of 2011.

Read all the results of the poll here.

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2 Comments

# Mike says :
May 1, 2011 [ 8:55 ]

It is interesting to note that Keiko doesn't have as much support from the central Andean regions as one might suppose - given the large number of supporters for her father that were (or are) there because of his success in squashing terrorism.

# Dan says :
May 1, 2011 [ 11:37 ]

It's curious, when reading the results in the "Finally, Datum asked a series of questions" section, that Ollanta Humala is leading. Keiko's positives rise well above Ollanta's in this series of questions. The discrepancy in these numbers, when compared to the final poll results, must be explained as a reflection of the undecided and blank ballot voters. Just guessing.

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