Lima, Peru | Tuesday, March 28, 2017 10:18 pm | | |
|Growth in the Lima Stock Exchange over the past year. The dip seen was on Monday, April 11, after Humala and Fujimori passed to the second round of elections. (Image taken from Bloomberg.com)|
|Investors will need a few years to gain confidence in an evential Ollanta Humala administration, writes Kelly Giem. (Photo: Marco Mendoza)
|Keiko Fujimori will keep the status quo for economic policy: expect a surge in investments if she wins, writes Kelly Giem. (Photo: Marco Mendoza)|
Good fact based article. Thank you LiP. I agree with most of this thoughtful piece. If we are to lift the poor out of poverty we need investment to continue in Peru. That means we need a Keiko presidency. The one thing I do question here is the long term stable outlook with Humala. Mr. Kelly Giem says it will take 5 to 7 years. I say if it takes that long it will likely never happen. If you lose the momentum it can take decades to recapture those investments. There will be lots of pain and suffering in that period. Beside the fact that in 5 to 7 years there would be a new president if it took that long. And, many more new questions.# Chris says :
Maybe it would be better to have an article the worst case scenarios.# A. Paul Gill says :
# Peru-N-English Blog says :
How to build an economy 101:
1) Jobs, jobs, jobs, jobs - I know so many hard-working Peruvians with 3 or 4 jobs because they are the qualified ones.
2) Preventative medical care - so much can be accomplished with regular medical check-ups in villages for children and dental care - handing out tooth brushes, floss and teaching people how to use them.
3) Training, training, training - teach people how to do a job, on the job. Give investors a break to hire people and train them.
4) Education - Learning how to learn - I've had four careers in my life and have been through 4 four companies since our first investment in Peru in 2003. If you know how to learn, to teach yourself, you need no employer.
5) Attract and keep investment and keep the costs of government within your means as taxpayers to pay.
6) Stamp out corruption, bribes.
7) Respect the judicial - pay judges more so you get better smarter judges and coherent decisions. Too often, the judges don't know the law and depend on lawyers to give an opinion.
At the end of the day - capital flight is a huge risk. Money is flowing in. Why risk Humala when the country will grow with Fujimori?
Mr. Gill ignorant poor people understand nothing you said. They also don't understand how interest rates impact them. That's why Humala is still in the race. I want to see Peru continue on the current path that will lift all boats. So I am supporting Keiko. If I was a selfish person I would be supporting Humala. Because it my situation it benefits me to have a falling (Peruvian curency) Sol. With a Humala win the Sol falls and I win, too. But I would rather lose and see Peru advance for the good of all.# Keiko Humala says :
# Robert Broughton says :
Surely you jest! Seems the world markets all sold off at the same time because of the Peru elections, not to mention the ability to foresee the future, lol.
There's a presidential election every 5 years, and with it, a future of uncertainty. Even after Garcia screwed Peru and fled to France, only to return and be welcomed with open arms to screw Peru once again, Peru survived. Or did it? Investors & markets will thrive regardless of who is president. The only thing preventing Peru's development, are the greedy & selfish.
Peru's electoral run-off election process is absurd, and costs money that could be used to improve Peru, but most likely it would fill the pockets of the greedy anyway, so why change it. Besides, like all other absurd ways and things in Peru, it's just the way it is, no need for change. Peru will forever remain a doormat unto it's self unless there's a change in behavior & attitude.
Kelly, you lost me on the subject of copper.# HECTOR TORRES says :
If, as you say, there's going to be a big demand for copper in the next few years, will that demand suddenly disappear if Humala wins instead of Fujimori? No, I don't think so.
Are you trying to tell us that the consumers of copper will take their demand elsewhere? If so, should Peru (regardless of who wins the election) be a participant in a race to the bottom?
As Carlos Mariategui said "peruvians are a bunch of hypochondriacs". And we are ; we like to suffer. But what I found on this remote place of the world (Australia) is that; even here we are not united and we look evrything towards our benefit. I could tell by experience that the comments above are true and the main reason this country I am living is prosperous. Forget the chauvinism and be more patriotic by allowing to come external investment to give work to our brothers. We lost many oportunnities before; so please let the them alone. your country man from Australia# Brian McAdams says :
...now that the election is over, let`s talk about the present time...Humala is here and the reality will unfold itself...for those living in the Cusco area and are wanting to help poor villagers with basic health care, contact me, Brian, at firstname.lastname@example.org ...be well all, Brian